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Fenerbahce 2–2 Denizlispor

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sat, Mar 7, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Z. Küçük

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win70%1.37
Draw18%5.36
Denizlispor win12%8.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Denizlispor −1.553%1.83
Fenerbahce −1.547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over65%1.49
Under35%2.74

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Ozan Tufan · Fenerbahce
36'🟨Tolgay Arslan · Fenerbahce
43'🟨Tolgay Arslan · Fenerbahce
43'🟥Tolgay Arslan · Fenerbahce
45'⚽ (pen)Radosław Murawski · Denizlispor
53'🟨Óscar Estupiñán · Denizlispor
54'🟨Hasan Ali Kaldırım · Fenerbahce
75'⚽Mustafa Yumlu · Denizlispor
76'🟨Ozan Tufan · Fenerbahce
77'🟨Serdar Aziz · Fenerbahce
86'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
9Shots12
3On target8
3Corners3
16Fouls20
7Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceDenizlispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.620.65
cards avg (last 5)2.600.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi
Tolga Ciğerci
· Fenerbahce
86'🟨Radosław Murawski · Denizlispor
87'🟨Özgür Çek · Denizlispor
90'🟨Altay Bayındır · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Recep Niyaz · Denizlispor
90'⚽Serdar Aziz · Fenerbahce
coach days462.0035.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.03
corner diff avg (last 5)0.401.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.806.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.207.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.572.76
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.07
dominance (last 5)0.600.53
elo1655.921443.59
elo momentum (last 5)-53.88-20.59
eye test v10.690.38
eye trend v1-0.220.37
first sub minute (last 10)55.2050.10
form points (last 5)2.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.530.82
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.60
h2h win rate (last 5)1.000.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.520.66
league points49.0031.00
league rank6.0012.00
matches since blank14.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.4080.20
possession avg (last 5)65.0051.60
rest days7.006.27
scorer concentration0.300.25
season ppg1.691.07
shot diff avg (last 5)5.001.80
shots for avg (last 5)16.2014.00
skill v11.850.45
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.504.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.405.20
squad age28.2128.69
state index-0.39-0.49
sterile dominance v11.170.09
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.220.25
threat rate (last 5)0.250.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20