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Genclerbirligi 1–0 Ankaragücü

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sun, Feb 23, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Şansalan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi win51%1.90
Draw26%3.70
Ankaragücü win23%4.33

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi −0.551%1.90
Ankaragücü −0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.83
Under47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'🟨Ante Kulušić · Ankaragücü
44'🟨Daniel Łukasik · Ankaragücü
61'🟨Erdem Özgenç · Genclerbirligi
70'🟨Halil Ibrahim Pehlivan · Genclerbirligi
74'⚽Giovanni Sio · Genclerbirligi
77'🟨Giovanni Sio · Genclerbirligi
88'🟨Ricardo Faty · Ankaragücü

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots10
5On target5
6Corners2
20Fouls15
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenclerbirligiAnkaragücü
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.560.63
cards avg (last 5)2.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEryaman Stadyumu
2.60
coach days145.00114.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.10
corner diff avg (last 5)3.60-5.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.008.40
corners for avg (last 5)7.602.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.091.18
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.08
dominance (last 5)0.510.45
elo1494.891443.72
elo momentum (last 5)2.4830.95
eye test v1-0.02-0.49
eye trend v1-0.260.45
first sub minute (last 10)59.8059.90
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.10
keeper form v10.76—
league points28.0025.00
league rank14.0017.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6070.60
possession avg (last 5)46.8039.40
rest days7.107.83
scorer concentration0.360.24
season ppg1.080.96
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.20-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.209.80
skill v1-0.03-1.31
sot against avg (last 5)5.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.20
squad age30.5929.01
state index-0.100.10
sterile dominance v1-0.48-1.34
threat rate (last 10)0.300.26
threat rate (last 3)0.300.32
threat rate (last 5)0.300.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40