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Yeni Malatyaspor 1–2 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sun, Feb 23, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: Y. Uğurlu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yeni Malatyaspor win45%2.11
Draw28%3.40
Antalyaspor win27%3.67

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yeni Malatyaspor −0.2553%1.85
Antalyaspor −0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.91
Under49%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Fredy · Antalyaspor
26'🟨Sinan Gümüş · Antalyaspor
29'⚽Umut Bulut · Yeni Malatyaspor
31'🟨Sinan Gümüş · Antalyaspor
31'🟥Sinan Gümüş · Antalyaspor
39'🟨Arturo Mina · Yeni Malatyaspor
89'⚽Lukas Podolski · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Robin Yalçın · Yeni Malatyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
18Shots9
8On target3
5Corners2
10Fouls14
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricYeni MalatyasporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.560.54
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Malatya Stadyumu
2.60
coach days53.0053.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.15
corner diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.206.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.206.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.673.24
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.16
dominance (last 5)0.450.50
elo1533.891459.09
elo momentum (last 5)-37.5250.27
eye test v1-0.12-0.16
eye trend v1-0.500.01
first sub minute (last 10)53.8052.40
form points (last 5)0.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.401.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.402.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.690.61
league points29.0025.00
league rank12.0017.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet8.003.00
matches since win8.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0074.20
possession avg (last 5)55.0045.20
rest days6.775.73
scorer concentration0.260.16
season ppg1.120.96
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.80-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.009.80
skill v10.65-0.57
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.20
squad age28.7729.50
state index-0.950.31
sterile dominance v10.85-0.46
threat rate (last 10)0.210.26
threat rate (last 3)0.210.22
threat rate (last 5)0.190.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.00