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Kayserispor 2–2 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sun, Feb 9, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: K. Gençerler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win41%2.34
Antalyaspor win32%3.21
Draw28%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor −0.2552%1.88
Kayserispor −0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.93
Under49%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Hakan Özmert · Antalyaspor
13'🟨Emre Taşdemir · Kayserispor
41'⚽ (pen)Bernard Mensah · Kayserispor
45'⚽ (pen)Sinan Gümüş · Antalyaspor
46'⚽Pedro Henrique · Kayserispor
58'🟨Cristian Săpunaru · Kayserispor
58'🟨Veysel Sarı · Antalyaspor
58'🟨Sinan Gümüş · Antalyaspor
76'🟨Pedro Henrique · Kayserispor
83'⚽Fredy · Antalyaspor
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots11
9On target3
8Corners8
16Fouls15
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.600.47
cards avg (last 5)2.202.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Şehir Stadı
Gustavo Campanharo
· Kayserispor
90'🟨Lukas Podolski · Antalyaspor
coach days70.0039.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.000.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.903.81
defensive leak (last 5)0.260.25
dominance (last 5)0.410.48
elo1393.481433.35
elo momentum (last 5)-22.58-2.08
eye test v1-0.04-0.64
eye trend v10.13-0.24
first sub minute (last 10)54.3052.40
form points (last 5)1.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.80-2.00
goals against avg (last 5)4.002.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.471.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.590.54
league points12.0018.00
league rank21.0018.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet8.000.00
matches since win8.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6074.80
possession avg (last 5)45.4043.40
rest days6.777.98
scorer concentration0.310.20
season ppg0.500.78
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.20-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.608.60
skill v10.07-0.63
sot against avg (last 5)7.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.00
squad age27.1328.37
state index-1.51-0.79
sterile dominance v1-0.43-0.48
threat rate (last 10)0.240.31
threat rate (last 3)0.300.25
threat rate (last 5)0.290.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80