⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Rizespor 1–2 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sat, Feb 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ü. Öztürk

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win44%2.15
Rizespor win29%3.35
Draw27%3.61

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas +0.2552%1.88
Rizespor +0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.75
Under45%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'⚽Burak Yılmaz · Besiktas
36'⚽Milan Škoda · Rizespor
63'🟨Ismaël Diomandé · Rizespor
71'🟨Zafer Görgen · Rizespor
72'🟨Ivanildo Fernandes · Rizespor
79'⚽Gökhan Gönül · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots7
4On target2
4Corners4
15Fouls10
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.530.65
cards avg (last 5)3.603.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
coach days518.0031.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.14
corner diff avg (last 5)0.402.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.207.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.793.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.28
dominance (last 5)0.420.55
elo1499.081632.37
elo momentum (last 5)14.77-47.54
eye test v1-0.210.01
eye trend v10.110.20
first sub minute (last 10)54.8058.00
form points (last 5)7.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.051.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.670.65
league points24.0037.00
league rank15.007.00
matches since blank4.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.0010.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8084.00
possession avg (last 5)45.2062.80
rest days4.886.04
scorer concentration0.180.15
season ppg1.091.68
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.002.00
shots for avg (last 5)8.2010.20
skill v1-0.321.57
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.505.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.00
squad age27.9829.02
state index-0.07-0.28
sterile dominance v1-0.171.29
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.190.24
threat rate (last 5)0.230.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20