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Sivasspor 1–1 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2019 · Mon, Jan 27, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Bitigen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor win58%1.66
Draw25%3.96
Rizespor win18%5.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor −0.7552%1.85
Rizespor −0.7548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.74
Under45%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Milan Škoda · Rizespor
33'🟨Montassar Talbi · Rizespor
56'🟨Fernando Boldrin · Rizespor
60'⚽Denys Harmash · Rizespor
67'🟨Mert Hakan Yandaş · Sivasspor
85'🟨Amedej Vetrih · Rizespor
88'🟨Gökhan Akkan · Rizespor
90'⚽Yasin Öztekin · Sivasspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots5
5On target3
6Corners1
10Fouls16
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSivassporRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.590.65
cards avg (last 5)3.602.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu
coach days240.00513.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.801.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.002.53
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.11
dominance (last 5)0.550.48
elo1679.871492.97
elo momentum (last 5)42.94-14.01
eye test v10.350.04
eye trend v1-0.490.08
first sub minute (last 10)63.1053.10
form points (last 5)13.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.10
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.30
keeper form v10.810.60
league points44.0023.00
league rank2.0015.00
matches since blank20.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.8078.40
possession avg (last 5)42.6048.80
rest days8.047.00
scorer concentration0.220.19
season ppg2.101.10
shot diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.0011.00
skill v1-0.990.08
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)6.004.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.20
squad age29.3528.53
state index1.25-0.30
sterile dominance v1-0.96-0.22
threat rate (last 10)0.320.25
threat rate (last 3)0.240.25
threat rate (last 5)0.290.28
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.60