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Kayserispor 1–1 Ankaragücü

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sat, Jan 25, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: C. Çakιr

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win39%2.40
Ankaragücü win34%2.86
Draw26%3.65

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ankaragücü −0.2554%1.81
Kayserispor −0.2546%2.09

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.90
Under49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨Cebrail Karayel · Ankaragücü
23'⚽ (pen)Bernard Mensah · Kayserispor
28'🟨Tiago Pinto · Ankaragücü
29'🟨Sedat Ağçay · Ankaragücü
33'🟨Héctor Canteros · Ankaragücü
45'🟨Emre Demir · Kayserispor
48'🟨Cebrail Karayel · Ankaragücü
48'🟥Cebrail Karayel · Ankaragücü
54'🟨Bernard Mensah · Kayserispor
68'🟨Gustavo Campanharo · Kayserispor
68'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots8
5On target2
12Corners3
20Fouls15
5Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporAnkaragücü
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.590.63
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Şehir Stadı
Alihan Kubalas
· Ankaragücü
76'🟨Pedro Henrique · Kayserispor
90'🟨Ben Rienstra · Kayserispor
90'🟨Alihan Kubalas · Ankaragücü
coach days55.0085.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.40-5.00
corners against avg (last 5)7.407.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.002.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.622.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.19
dominance (last 5)0.340.46
elo1402.081412.77
elo momentum (last 5)-44.249.49
eye test v1-0.27-0.50
eye trend v10.28-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)51.1052.40
form points (last 5)0.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-3.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)4.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.470.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
keeper form v10.640.59
league points11.0016.00
league rank21.0017.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.0012.00
matches since win5.0014.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6076.00
possession avg (last 5)43.0047.00
rest days7.007.75
scorer concentration0.330.31
season ppg0.520.76
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.00-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.609.20
skill v1-0.29-0.28
sot against avg (last 5)8.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.00
squad age26.2631.39
state index-1.50-0.91
sterile dominance v1-0.42-0.22
threat rate (last 10)0.220.27
threat rate (last 3)0.270.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.60