← Süper Lig 2019 · Sun, Jan 19, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Şansalan
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Besiktas win | 52% | 1.83 |
| Sivasspor win | 24% | 4.00 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Besiktas −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Sivasspor −0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.58 |
| Under | 40% | 2.46 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 14 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand