← Süper Lig 2019 · Fri, Dec 27, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Aydınus
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Besiktas win | 65% | 1.48 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.52 |
| Genclerbirligi win | 14% | 7.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Besiktas −1 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Genclerbirligi −1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.61 |
| Under | 41% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand