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Besiktas 0–2 Yeni Malatyaspor

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sun, Dec 15, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Y. Uğurlu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win62%1.56
Draw21%4.60
Yeni Malatyaspor win17%5.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas −150%1.94
Yeni Malatyaspor −150%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over63%1.50
Under37%2.69

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Mitchell Donald · Yeni Malatyaspor
10'🟨Issam Chebake · Yeni Malatyaspor
44'🟨Caner Erkin · Besiktas
46'🟨Adem Ljajić · Besiktas
80'🟨Jeremain Lens · Besiktas
81'🟨Guilherme · Yeni Malatyaspor
85'⚽Thievy Bifouma · Yeni Malatyaspor
90'🟨Umut Nayir · Besiktas
90'🟨Loris Karius · Besiktas
90'🟨Caner Erkin · Besiktas
90'🟥

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots4
1On target3
4Corners0
11Fouls12
6Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasYeni Malatyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.590.60
cards avg (last 5)1.403.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVodafone Park
Caner Erkin
· Besiktas
90'⚽ (pen)Adis Jahović · Yeni Malatyaspor
coach days167.00197.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.13
corner diff avg (last 5)2.00-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.452.07
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.13
dominance (last 5)0.600.45
elo1679.911582.53
elo momentum (last 5)15.76-21.28
eye test v10.770.16
eye trend v10.080.15
first sub minute (last 10)61.0063.70
form points (last 5)12.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.63
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.470.71
league points34.0025.00
league rank2.008.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win1.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.0078.00
possession avg (last 5)58.8053.40
rest days2.838.17
scorer concentration0.200.26
season ppg2.001.47
shot diff avg (last 5)5.00-3.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.0011.60
skill v11.410.34
sot against avg (last 5)4.006.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.404.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.004.60
squad age24.3429.43
state index0.81-0.35
sterile dominance v10.710.34
threat rate (last 10)0.240.25
threat rate (last 3)0.290.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.23
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.40