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Genclerbirligi 3–1 Goztep

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sat, Dec 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Çakιr

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi win44%2.20
Goztep win29%3.33
Draw27%3.51

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi −0.2551%1.91
Goztep −0.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.95
Under49%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'⚽Bogdan Stancu · Genclerbirligi
34'⚽Wallace Reis · Goztep
35'⚽Giovanni Sio · Genclerbirligi
53'🟨Bogdan Stancu · Genclerbirligi
64'🟨Mats Seuntjens · Genclerbirligi
67'⚽Bogdan Stancu · Genclerbirligi
78'🟨Berkan Emir · Goztep
90'🟨Fabricio Baiano · Genclerbirligi

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
8Shots11
5On target1
2Corners4
17Fouls11
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenclerbirligiGoztep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.450.64
cards avg (last 5)1.803.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEryaman Stadyumu
coach days74.00316.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.17
corner diff avg (last 5)2.00-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.002.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.701.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.08
dominance (last 5)0.580.42
elo1499.201508.77
elo momentum (last 5)24.8050.44
eye test v10.57-0.52
eye trend v1-0.19-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)54.1053.70
form points (last 5)10.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.811.07
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.650.73
league points18.0020.00
league rank13.0012.00
matches since blank6.0012.00
matches since clean sheet7.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8076.40
possession avg (last 5)47.0042.40
rest days7.856.98
scorer concentration0.290.21
season ppg1.061.25
shot diff avg (last 5)3.20-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.609.20
skill v10.09-0.56
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.804.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.40
squad age28.9030.01
state index0.020.43
sterile dominance v1-0.68-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.330.23
threat rate (last 3)0.350.24
threat rate (last 5)0.330.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.80