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Alanyaspor 5–0 Ankaragücü

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sat, Nov 30, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Ulusoy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win70%1.35
Draw17%5.70
Ankaragücü win12%8.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor −1.2553%1.81
Ankaragücü −1.2547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.60
Under40%2.42

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Anastasios Bakasetas · Alanyaspor
24'⚽Djalma · Alanyaspor
57'🟨Papiss Demba Cissé · Alanyaspor
63'🟨Cebrail Karayel · Ankaragücü
85'⚽Anastasios Bakasetas · Alanyaspor
90'🟨Dever Orgill · Ankaragücü
90'⚽Djalma · Alanyaspor
90'⚽Djalma · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
19Shots7
12On target2
6Corners9
14Fouls12
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporAnkaragücü
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.710.62
cards avg (last 5)2.402.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu
coach days182.0029.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.03
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.206.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.781.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.11
dominance (last 5)0.680.41
elo1580.811426.58
elo momentum (last 5)-23.52-39.61
eye test v10.50-0.48
eye trend v1-0.430.29
first sub minute (last 10)58.0054.60
form points (last 5)3.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.660.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.670.71
league points23.0012.00
league rank6.0017.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.005.00
matches since win5.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4073.80
possession avg (last 5)48.4043.40
rest days6.047.00
scorer concentration0.470.43
season ppg1.640.86
shot diff avg (last 5)9.00-4.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.4012.00
skill v1-0.37-0.76
sot against avg (last 5)2.206.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.703.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.40
squad age30.2731.25
state index-0.07-1.29
sterile dominance v1-0.77-0.77
threat rate (last 10)0.330.25
threat rate (last 3)0.320.31
threat rate (last 5)0.320.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.00