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Ankaragücü 0–3 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sat, Nov 23, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Çakιr

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win45%2.12
Ankaragücü win28%3.48
Draw26%3.63

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor +0.2552%1.85
Ankaragücü +0.2548%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.63
Under41%2.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Alexander Sørloth · Trabzonspor
9'🟨İlhan Parlak · Ankaragücü
36'🟨Héctor Canteros · Ankaragücü
40'🟨Yusuf Sari · Trabzonspor
43'🟨Ricardo Faty · Ankaragücü
45'🟨Ricardo Faty · Ankaragücü
45'🟥Ricardo Faty · Ankaragücü
48'⚽Yusuf Sari · Trabzonspor
56'⚽Anthony Nwakaeme · Trabzonspor
79'🟨Gastón Campi · Trabzonspor
89'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots21
1On target10
5Corners5
18Fouls12
5Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnkaragücüTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.580.56
cards avg (last 5)2.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEryaman Stadyumu
Alihan Kubalas
· Ankaragücü
coach days22.00540.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.800.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.582.15
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.09
dominance (last 5)0.450.48
elo1437.971624.60
elo momentum (last 5)-24.76-14.72
eye test v1-0.230.46
eye trend v10.35-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)56.7060.70
form points (last 5)1.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.40
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.720.67
league points12.0021.00
league rank16.008.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0078.60
possession avg (last 5)45.0049.40
rest days12.9413.04
scorer concentration0.430.31
season ppg0.921.62
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.4012.40
skill v1-0.740.13
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.20
squad age31.7526.50
state index-0.870.05
sterile dominance v1-0.71-0.09
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.330.24
threat rate (last 5)0.280.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00