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Kayserispor 1–0 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sun, Nov 3, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kardeşler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win63%1.52
Draw22%4.46
Kayserispor win15%6.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce +153%1.86
Kayserispor +147%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.61
Under41%2.41

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

58'⚽Umut Bulut · Kayserispor
61'🟨Garry Rodrigues · Fenerbahce
75'🟨Tolga Ciğerci · Fenerbahce
82'🟨Serdar Aziz · Fenerbahce
86'🟨Yasir Subaşı · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots22
1On target5
3Corners8
19Fouls10
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.600.55
cards avg (last 5)3.800.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Şehir Stadı
coach days33.00337.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.11
corner diff avg (last 5)2.201.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.772.38
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.17
dominance (last 5)0.380.77
elo1447.361681.27
elo momentum (last 5)-32.657.18
eye test v10.060.79
eye trend v1-0.06-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)44.9056.50
form points (last 5)2.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.800.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.650.67
league points5.0021.00
league rank21.003.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet20.003.00
matches since win13.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8082.60
possession avg (last 5)48.6061.00
rest days7.217.96
scorer concentration0.500.31
season ppg0.451.91
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.0013.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.0019.00
skill v10.101.31
sot against avg (last 5)6.202.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.505.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.60
squad age28.3628.74
state index-1.440.91
sterile dominance v10.200.43
threat rate (last 10)0.220.28
threat rate (last 3)0.220.27
threat rate (last 5)0.220.30
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.60