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Konyaspor 0–2 Yeni Malatyaspor

← Süper Lig 2019 · Mon, Oct 21, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Öğretmenoğlu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win45%2.17
Draw29%3.32
Yeni Malatyaspor win27%3.65

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor −0.2552%1.86
Yeni Malatyaspor −0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.85
Over47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'🟥Serkan Kırıntılı · Konyaspor
4'⚽Guilherme · Yeni Malatyaspor
12'🟨Mustafa Akbaş · Yeni Malatyaspor
24'🟨Marko Jevtović · Konyaspor
52'⚽Robin Yalçın · Yeni Malatyaspor
65'🟨Issam Chebake · Yeni Malatyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
6Shots12
3On target6
3Corners3
10Fouls16
1Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporYeni Malatyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.420.64
cards avg (last 5)2.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu
1.80
coach days354.00142.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.602.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.603.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.005.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.702.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.17
dominance (last 5)0.530.59
elo1596.391576.34
elo momentum (last 5)38.1913.29
eye test v10.550.78
eye trend v10.11-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)59.3055.90
form points (last 5)12.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.202.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.511.60
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.810.64
league points16.0014.00
league rank3.005.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.004.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.4081.60
possession avg (last 5)57.8058.00
rest days16.2116.98
scorer concentration0.430.36
season ppg1.781.56
shot diff avg (last 5)2.204.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.8014.80
skill v11.391.01
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.904.90
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.206.00
squad age28.3529.13
state index0.770.50
sterile dominance v10.730.54
threat rate (last 10)0.280.22
threat rate (last 3)0.280.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20