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Konyaspor 2–1 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sun, Sep 29, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: A. Ulusoy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win51%1.85
Draw28%3.58
Kayserispor win21%4.62

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor −0.552%1.85
Kayserispor −0.548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.65
Over42%2.32

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽ (og)Levan Shengelia · Kayserispor
11'🟨Bilal Başaçıkoğlu · Kayserispor
29'🟨Pedro Henrique · Kayserispor
42'🟨Alper Uludağ · Konyaspor
45'⚽Deni Milošević · Konyaspor
73'🟨Marin Aničić · Konyaspor
89'🟨Miguel Lopes · Kayserispor
90'🟨Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor
90'🟨Nejc Skubic · Konyaspor
90'🟨Pedro Henrique · Kayserispor
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
24Shots7
8On target3
5Corners3
10Fouls19
4Yellow cards7
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.51
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.350.77
cards avg (last 5)2.003.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu
Bernard Mensah
· Kayserispor
90'🟨Bernard Mensah · Kayserispor
90'🟨Silviu Lung Jr. · Kayserispor
90'🟥Pedro Henrique · Kayserispor
90'🟥Bernard Mensah · Kayserispor
90'⚽ (pen)Marko Jevtović · Konyaspor
coach days332.00302.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.704.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.09
dominance (last 5)0.530.34
elo1557.971480.01
elo momentum (last 5)7.90-8.71
eye test v1-0.10-0.09
eye trend v1-0.33-0.31
first sub minute (last 10)65.1050.90
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.830.62
league points7.003.00
league rank13.0020.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.0020.00
matches since win1.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.6078.60
possession avg (last 5)55.6046.80
rest days8.737.85
scorer concentration—0.40
season ppg1.170.50
shot diff avg (last 5)1.80-7.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.009.20
skill v11.06-0.05
sot against avg (last 5)5.006.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.805.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.00
squad age28.0029.00
state index0.19-0.75
sterile dominance v10.360.26
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.200.20
threat rate (last 5)0.280.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.60