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Gaziantep 3–2 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sat, Sep 14, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Meler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win44%2.26
Gaziantep win30%3.24
Draw27%3.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep +0.2551%1.93
Besiktas +0.2549%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.73
Under44%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟥Domagoj Vida · Besiktas
8'⚽ (pen)Patrick Twumasi · Gaziantep
19'🟨Souleymane Diarra · Gaziantep
47'🟨Víctor Ruiz · Besiktas
54'🟨Günay Güvenç · Gaziantep
54'🟨Adem Ljajić · Besiktas
58'⚽Güray Vural · Gaziantep
75'🟥Olarenwaju Kayode · Gaziantep
75'🟥Mohamed Elneny · Besiktas
79'⚽Raman Chibsah · Gaziantep
83'⚽Umut Nayir · Besiktas
84'⚽Atiba Hutchinson · Besiktas
88'🟨Caner Erkin · Besiktas
90'🟨Oğuz Ceylan · Gaziantep
90'🟨Muhammet Demir · Gaziantep
90'🟨Tyler Boyd · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots12
5On target5
4Corners14
15Fouls9
4Yellow cards4
1Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.570.58
cards avg (last 5)1.802.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGaziantep Stadyumu
coach days348.0075.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)—0.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.000.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.153.21
defensive leak (last 5)—0.13
dominance (last 5)—0.48
elo1415.291694.94
elo momentum (last 5)8.43-15.22
eye test v1-0.52-0.03
eye trend v1-0.01-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)56.6056.30
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)3.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.49
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.50
keeper form v10.630.75
league points4.004.00
league rank16.0012.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet9.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6086.40
possession avg (last 5)40.2063.00
rest days13.0313.93
season ppg1.331.33
shot diff avg (last 5)—-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)—12.40
skill v1-0.481.85
sot against avg (last 5)6.205.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.60
squad age28.5828.04
state index-0.660.29
sterile dominance v1-0.551.51
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.270.21
threat rate (last 5)0.260.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60