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Antalyaspor 2–2 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sat, Sep 14, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Aydınus

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win49%1.94
Draw26%3.69
Kayserispor win24%4.02

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor −0.550%1.94
Kayserispor −0.550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.85
Over47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Gustavo Blanco · Antalyaspor
36'🟨Ufuk Akyol · Antalyaspor
40'🟨Nazım Sangaré · Antalyaspor
44'⚽ (pen)Emmanuel Adebayor · Kayserispor
50'🟨Brice Dja Djédjé · Kayserispor
50'⚽ (pen)Serdar Özkan · Antalyaspor
60'🟨Serdar Özkan · Antalyaspor
74'⚽Benoît Poulain · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
18Shots5
5On target3
11Corners3
14Fouls15
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.530.64
cards avg (last 5)2.203.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntalya Stadyumu
coach days621.00287.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.08
corner diff avg (last 5)1.000.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.414.60
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.11
dominance (last 5)0.570.44
elo1495.031478.88
elo momentum (last 5)8.17-41.47
eye test v10.200.63
eye trend v10.26-0.39
first sub minute (last 10)61.6052.70
form points (last 5)7.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.20
keeper form v10.730.69
league points4.001.00
league rank13.0017.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.0018.00
matches since win2.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.2082.20
possession avg (last 5)47.2049.20
rest days14.0314.98
season ppg1.330.25
shot diff avg (last 5)3.20-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.4014.00
skill v10.560.49
sot against avg (last 5)3.006.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.505.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.40
squad age27.7529.12
state index0.05-0.91
sterile dominance v1-0.45-0.06
threat rate (last 10)0.260.29
threat rate (last 3)0.330.21
threat rate (last 5)0.330.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40