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Konyaspor 2–2 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sat, Aug 31, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Ü. Öztürk

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win44%2.16
Draw30%3.20
Antalyaspor win26%3.88

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor −0.2553%1.83
Antalyaspor −0.2547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.62
Over41%2.38

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽ (pen)Serdar Özkan · Antalyaspor
58'🟨Gustavo Blanco · Antalyaspor
60'⚽Riad Bajić · Konyaspor
75'⚽Farouk Miya · Konyaspor
84'🟨Marko Jevtović · Konyaspor
84'⚽Paul Omo Mukairu · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor
90'🟨Ruud Boffin · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
17Shots15
4On target6
5Corners7
13Fouls14
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.460.48
cards avg (last 5)1.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu
coach days303.00607.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.07
corner diff avg (last 5)2.20-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.204.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.162.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.10
dominance (last 5)0.480.50
elo1561.781491.44
elo momentum (last 5)1.46-8.72
eye test v10.38-0.31
eye trend v10.290.10
first sub minute (last 10)66.8061.10
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.760.69
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win7.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6084.80
possession avg (last 5)49.8051.00
rest days5.905.90
season ppg1.001.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.401.00
shots for avg (last 5)15.2013.00
skill v10.470.88
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.00
squad age28.6028.05
state index-0.16-0.15
sterile dominance v1-0.220.32
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.360.31
threat rate (last 5)0.300.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20