← Süper Lig 2019 · Sun, Aug 25, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: K. Gençerler
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Trabzonspor win | 66% | 1.46 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.98 |
| Yeni Malatyaspor win | 13% | 8.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Trabzonspor −1 | 56% | 1.74 |
| Yeni Malatyaspor −1 | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.57 |
| Under | 39% | 2.57 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Medical Park Stadyumu |