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Fenerbahce 5–0 Gaziantep

← Süper Lig 2019 · Mon, Aug 19, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kardeşler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win61%1.57
Draw22%4.42
Gaziantep win16%6.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep −151%1.93
Fenerbahce −149%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.57
Under39%2.51

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽ (pen)Victor Moses · Fenerbahce
12'🟨Raman Chibsah · Gaziantep
17'⚽Vedat Muriqi · Fenerbahce
24'⚽ (pen)Emre Belözoğlu · Fenerbahce
50'🟨Abdul Aziz Tetteh · Gaziantep
74'⚽Nabil Dirar · Fenerbahce
80'🟨Jefferson · Gaziantep
88'⚽Ferdi Kadıoğlu · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Vedat Muriqi · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Souleymane Diarra · Gaziantep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
18Shots4
9On target0
4Corners2
14Fouls18
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.700.56
cards avg (last 5)1.800.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi
coach days261.00322.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.15—
corner diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.203.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.842.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.09—
dominance (last 5)0.54—
elo1659.241396.19
elo momentum (last 5)40.39-34.42
eye test v10.47-0.02
eye trend v10.150.18
first sub minute (last 10)45.1059.10
form points (last 5)15.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.60-2.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.82
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.05
keeper form v10.620.38
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.006.00
matches since win0.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.6078.80
possession avg (last 5)58.0043.20
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.20—
shots for avg (last 5)13.40—
skill v11.33-0.26
sot against avg (last 5)2.806.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.20
squad age28.4523.63
state index1.11-1.22
sterile dominance v10.87-0.36
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.25
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20