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Sivasspor 3–0 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sat, Aug 17, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Öğretmenoğlu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win37%2.62
Sivasspor win36%2.66
Draw27%3.61

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor +050%1.96
Besiktas +050%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.73
Under44%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Ziya Erdal · Sivasspor
30'⚽Mert Hakan Yandaş · Sivasspor
44'🟨Mert Hakan Yandaş · Sivasspor
45'🟨Adem Ljajić · Besiktas
45'🟨Tyler Boyd · Besiktas
54'⚽Mustapha Yatabaré · Sivasspor
63'🟨Isaac Cofie · Sivasspor
65'🟨Caner Erkin · Besiktas
70'🟨Hakan Arslan · Sivasspor
76'⚽Emre Kılınç · Sivasspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots13
8On target3
7Corners0
15Fouls9
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSivassporBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.630.69
cards avg (last 5)0.601.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu
coach days77.0047.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.833.22
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.11
dominance (last 5)0.410.44
elo1551.641716.48
elo momentum (last 5)16.98-12.52
eye test v10.33-0.02
eye trend v10.54-0.63
first sub minute (last 10)64.9055.00
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.581.29
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.45
keeper form v10.890.75
matches since blank4.004.00
matches since clean sheet4.0011.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6080.00
possession avg (last 5)43.2054.80
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.20-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.0011.40
skill v1-0.280.64
sot against avg (last 5)5.606.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.805.70
sot for avg (last 3)7.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.20
squad age29.7428.65
state index0.200.43
sterile dominance v1-0.500.70
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.350.19
threat rate (last 5)0.270.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20