⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Anderlecht 7–0 Waregem

← Jupiler Pro League 2019 · Sat, Mar 7, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Nathan Verboomen, Belgium

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht win70%1.44
Draw18%5.79
Waregem win12%9.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht −1.552%1.88
Waregem −1.548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over65%1.48
Under35%2.76

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽ (og)Ewoud Pletinckx · Anderlecht
15'⚽Michel Vlap · Anderlecht
22'🟨— · Waregem
49'⚽Jérémy Doku · Anderlecht
53'🟨Olivier Deschacht · Waregem
65'⚽ (pen)Michel Vlap · Anderlecht
67'🟨Dejan Joveljić · Anderlecht
75'⚽Jérémy Doku · Anderlecht
81'🟨Jérémy Doku · Anderlecht
83'⚽Michel Vlap · Anderlecht
86'⚽Nacer Chadli ·

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
11Shots8
8On target4
4Corners3
11Fouls11
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnderlechtWaregem
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.52
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.57
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.490.52
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)2.202.60
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLotto Park
Anderlecht
158.00
3019.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.17
corner diff avg (last 5)3.802.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.603.40
corners for avg (last 5)7.405.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.081.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.15
dominance (last 5)0.580.44
elo1616.881526.86
elo momentum (last 5)21.59-15.21
eye test v10.040.12
eye trend v10.020.37
first sub minute (last 10)62.6063.20
form points (last 5)10.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.811.96
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
league points44.0042.00
league rank9.0010.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win0.004.00
possession avg (last 5)60.6049.00
rest days7.087.00
scorer concentration0.210.26
season ppg1.381.31
shot diff avg (last 5)2.80-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.809.20
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.60
squad age24.9425.81
state index0.80-0.50
sterile dominance v11.800.58
threat rate (last 10)0.180.17
threat rate (last 3)0.150.22
threat rate (last 5)0.140.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.20