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Anderlecht 6–1 AS Eupen

← Jupiler Pro League 2019 · Sun, Feb 23, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Alexandre Boucaut, Belgium

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht win63%1.51
Draw24%4.06
AS Eupen win13%7.55

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht −151%1.91
AS Eupen −149%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.93
Over49%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Amir Murillo · Anderlecht
15'🟥Jordi Amat · AS Eupen
17'⚽ (pen)Michel Vlap · Anderlecht
19'🟨Andreas Beck · AS Eupen
25'⚽Marko Pjaca · Anderlecht
35'⚽Vincent Kompany · Anderlecht
50'🟨Jens Cools · AS Eupen
52'⚽Francis Amuzu · Anderlecht
77'🟨Killian Sardella · Anderlecht
77'⚽Jonathan Bolingi · AS Eupen
90'⚽Zakaria Bakkali

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

4Half-time score0
14Shots5
9On target4
6Corners5
15Fouls9
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnderlechtAS Eupen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.490.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
cards avg (last 5)2.402.00
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLotto Park
· Anderlecht
145.00
267.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.25
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.301.90
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.16
dominance (last 5)0.440.40
elo1584.081458.39
elo momentum (last 5)-4.0218.72
eye test v1-0.52-0.64
eye trend v1-0.450.21
first sub minute (last 10)64.5062.90
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
league points35.0031.00
league rank11.0014.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
possession avg (last 5)51.6042.40
rest days7.908.90
scorer concentration0.270.19
season ppg1.211.07
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.00-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.007.00
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.702.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.20
squad age24.94—
state index-0.02-0.27
sterile dominance v10.830.29
threat rate (last 10)0.180.14
threat rate (last 3)0.150.18
threat rate (last 5)0.180.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20