← Jupiler Pro League 2019 · Sat, Feb 22, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Lardot, Belgium
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Club Brugge win | 41% | 2.39 |
| Royal Excel Mouscron win | 32% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.55 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Royal Excel Mouscron +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Club Brugge +0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand