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Antwerp 1–1 Charleroi

← Jupiler Pro League 2019 · Sun, Feb 16, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Bram Van Driessche, Belgium

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antwerp win46%2.12
Draw28%3.50
Charleroi win26%3.69

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antwerp −0.2553%1.83
Charleroi −0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.86
Over48%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Ivo Rodrigues · Antwerp
32'🟨Sinan Bolat · Antwerp
51'⚽Shamar Nicholson · Charleroi
60'🟨Shamar Nicholson · Charleroi
73'🟨Dorian Dessoleil · Charleroi
79'🟨Marco Ilaimaharitra · Charleroi
83'🟨Ryota Morioka · Charleroi
90'🟨Kevin Mirallas · Antwerp

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots9
5On target6
6Corners10
11Fouls17
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntwerpCharleroi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.48
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
cards avg (last 5)1.601.60
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBosuilstadion
960.00
2451.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.20-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.881.93
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.10
dominance (last 5)0.490.52
elo1651.141665.25
elo momentum (last 5)-1.556.10
eye test v10.60-0.05
eye trend v10.06-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)56.4068.40
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.511.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
league points55.0054.00
league rank4.005.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win3.000.00
possession avg (last 5)55.0058.40
rest days2.754.75
scorer concentration0.310.29
season ppg1.901.93
shot diff avg (last 5)0.600.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.807.80
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.604.40
state index0.280.44
sterile dominance v10.701.35
threat rate (last 10)0.210.18
threat rate (last 3)0.210.17
threat rate (last 5)0.210.17
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.20