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Club Brugge 1–2 Anderlecht

← Jupiler Pro League 2019 · Sun, Jan 26, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Alexandre Boucaut, Belgium

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht win47%2.05
Club Brugge win27%3.64
Draw26%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge +0.553%1.85
Anderlecht +0.547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.73
Under45%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Peter Žulj · Anderlecht
33'⚽Kevin Hoggas · Club Brugge
65'🟨Lassana Coulibaly · Club Brugge
86'🟨Zakaria Bakkali · Anderlecht
87'⚽Francis Amuzu · Anderlecht
90'🟨Stef Peeters · Club Brugge
90'🟨Kouadio Dabila · Club Brugge
90'⚽Michel Vlap · Anderlecht

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots5
8On target3
10Corners4
15Fouls10
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub BruggeAnderlecht
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.460.50
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.560.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)2.401.20
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJan Breydel Stadium
117.00
117.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.605.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.002.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.623.86
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.04
dominance (last 5)0.510.42
elo1599.351576.37
elo momentum (last 5)9.757.51
eye test v1-0.75-0.31
eye trend v10.24-0.34
first sub minute (last 10)46.0067.90
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.260.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.25
league points64.0028.00
league rank1.0012.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win0.003.00
possession avg (last 5)41.2051.80
rest days6.856.85
scorer concentration0.250.32
season ppg1.451.12
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-3.20
shots for avg (last 5)8.207.80
sot against avg (last 5)6.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.105.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.80
squad age—24.94
state index0.440.06
sterile dominance v1-0.070.48
threat rate (last 10)0.180.20
threat rate (last 3)0.160.21
threat rate (last 5)0.190.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20