← Jupiler Pro League 2019 · Thu, Dec 26, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Frederik Geldhof, Belgium
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Mechelen win | 39% | 2.48 |
| Royal Excel Mouscron win | 33% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.45 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Royal Excel Mouscron +0.25 | 55% | 1.77 |
| Mechelen +0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand