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AJ Auxerre 3–1 Niort

← Ligue 2 2019 · Fri, Feb 28, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Romain Lissorgue, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AJ Auxerre win55%1.77
Draw28%3.50
Niort win17%5.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Niort −0.7552%1.87
AJ Auxerre −0.7548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨François Bellugou · AJ Auxerre
44'⚽Axel Ngando · AJ Auxerre
46'⚽Eddy Sylvestre · AJ Auxerre
49'⚽ (og)Carlens Arcus · Niort
75'🟨Guy-Marcelin Kilama · Niort
78'⚽Aly Ndom · AJ Auxerre
85'🟨Ibrahim Sissoko · Niort
85'🟨David Djigla · Niort

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
17Shots7
6On target1
1Corners4
15Fouls14
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAJ AuxerreNiort
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.430.56
cards avg (last 5)1.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de l'Abbé Deschamps (Auxerre)
coach days242.0058.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.18
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.603.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.851.34
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.17
dominance (last 5)0.450.52
elo1430.671387.01
elo momentum (last 5)-1.528.96
eye test v1-0.080.15
eye trend v10.380.37
first sub minute (last 10)59.0053.60
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.100.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.750.56
league points31.0025.00
league rank16.0019.00
matches since blank2.006.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0075.80
possession avg (last 5)51.0052.80
rest days3.977.00
scorer concentration0.150.44
season ppg1.110.93
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.000.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.6012.20
skill v10.390.10
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.80
squad age28.5524.38
state index-0.49-0.45
sterile dominance v10.350.22
threat rate (last 10)0.240.20
threat rate (last 3)0.240.24
threat rate (last 5)0.230.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20