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Racing Club de Lens 1–4 Caen

← Ligue 2 2019 · Sat, Feb 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sylvain Palhies, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win60%1.61
Draw27%3.51
Caen win13%7.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens −0.7554%1.81
Caen −0.7546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.58
Over39%2.47

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Corentin Jean · Racing Club de Lens
21'🟨Steven Fortes · Racing Club de Lens
22'⚽ (pen)Malik Tchokounte · Caen
23'🟨Clément Michelin · Racing Club de Lens
24'🟨Malik Tchokounte · Caen
31'⚽ (pen)Prince Oniangué · Caen
45'🟨Simon Banza · Racing Club de Lens
58'🟨Guillaume Gillet · Racing Club de Lens
72'⚽Prince Oniangué · Caen
73'🟨Clément Michelin · Racing Club de Lens
73'🟥

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
10Shots8
1On target7
2Corners2
19Fouls20
5Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensCaen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.660.60
cards avg (last 5)1.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis (Lens)
Clément Michelin · Racing Club de Lens
74'⚽Malik Tchokounte · Caen
85'🟨Nicholas Gioacchini · Caen
coach days662.00144.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.12
corner diff avg (last 5)4.200.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.803.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.631.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.10
dominance (last 5)0.560.46
elo1576.301455.09
elo momentum (last 5)-1.724.39
eye test v1-0.16-0.49
eye trend v10.04-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)56.8055.40
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.20
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.750.67
league points50.0028.00
league rank3.0017.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0072.80
possession avg (last 5)57.6046.40
rest days4.767.79
scorer concentration0.250.30
season ppg1.851.04
shot diff avg (last 5)3.80-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.409.80
skill v10.93-0.63
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.40
squad age27.6226.26
state index0.23-0.37
sterile dominance v10.84-0.18
threat rate (last 10)0.200.21
threat rate (last 3)0.210.21
threat rate (last 5)0.210.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.00