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Sochaux 0–4 FC Lorient

← Ligue 2 2019 · Sat, Feb 1, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Jeremy Stinat, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win40%2.41
Draw32%3.00
Sochaux win27%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux +0.2552%1.87
FC Lorient +0.2548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.50
Over36%2.68

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Pape Paye · Sochaux
22'🟨Ousseynou Thioune · Sochaux
22'🟨Adolphe Teikeu · Sochaux
24'⚽ (pen)Yoane Wissa · FC Lorient
26'🟨Christopher Rocchia · Sochaux
29'🟨Franklin Wadja · FC Lorient
45'⚽Yann Kitala · FC Lorient
62'⚽Laurent Abergel · FC Lorient
83'⚽Yoane Wissa · FC Lorient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
20Shots10
2On target6
10Corners5
10Fouls14
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxFC Lorient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.640.64
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Auguste-Bonal (Montbéliard)
coach days427.00276.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.803.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.203.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.406.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.462.82
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.16
dominance (last 5)0.430.66
elo1441.841564.89
elo momentum (last 5)-23.2510.71
eye test v1-0.620.89
eye trend v10.27-0.24
first sub minute (last 10)56.2051.40
form points (last 5)3.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.55
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.40
keeper form v10.730.70
league points28.0045.00
league rank12.001.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet8.003.00
matches since win8.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0083.00
possession avg (last 5)47.0057.20
rest days7.817.81
scorer concentration0.290.40
season ppg1.272.05
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.007.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.6015.60
skill v1-0.381.10
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.105.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.006.00
squad age25.3827.96
state index-0.740.50
sterile dominance v10.040.48
threat rate (last 10)0.200.28
threat rate (last 3)0.220.28
threat rate (last 5)0.210.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.40