← Ligue 2 2019 · Fri, Nov 22, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastein Dechepy, France
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Caen win | 47% | 2.07 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.13 |
| Le Mans FC win | 22% | 4.32 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Le Mans FC −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Caen −0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.55 |
| Over | 38% | 2.54 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano (Caen) |