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Clermont 0–1 Le Mans FC

← Ligue 2 2019 · Sat, Nov 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Romain Lissorgue, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win58%1.68
Draw27%3.60
Le Mans FC win16%6.16

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont −0.7552%1.88
Le Mans FC −0.7548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.94
Over49%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Georges Gope-Fenepej · Le Mans FC
28'🟨Georges Gope-Fenepej · Le Mans FC
33'🟨Yrondu Musavu-King · Le Mans FC
38'🟨Pierre Lemonnier · Le Mans FC
49'🟨Vital Nsimba · Clermont
58'🟥Johan Gastien · Clermont
68'🟨Yann Boé-Kane · Le Mans FC
82'🟨Florent Ogier · Clermont

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots8
3On target2
7Corners1
14Fouls15
2Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontLe Mans FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.440.48
cards avg (last 5)1.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel Montpied (Clermont-Ferrand)
coach days2680.003776.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.213.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.13
dominance (last 5)0.600.52
elo1503.561345.65
elo momentum (last 5)-5.859.97
eye test v10.48-0.11
eye trend v10.060.29
first sub minute (last 10)67.1058.60
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.100.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.680.72
league points21.009.00
league rank7.0021.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8072.80
possession avg (last 5)58.8048.20
rest days7.837.83
scorer concentration0.450.27
season ppg1.620.69
shot diff avg (last 5)4.600.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.8011.60
skill v11.08-0.55
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.20
squad age27.2026.12
state index-0.13-0.63
sterile dominance v10.76-0.27
threat rate (last 10)0.230.23
threat rate (last 3)0.250.21
threat rate (last 5)0.240.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.00