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Chambly Thelle FC 1–5 Guingamp

← Ligue 2 2019 · Fri, Nov 1, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Cedric Dos Santos, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp win40%2.48
Draw33%3.00
Chambly Thelle FC win27%3.61

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chambly Thelle FC +0.2553%1.84
Guingamp +0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.52
Over37%2.63

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Benjamin Santelli · Chambly Thelle FC
6'🟨Diaranke Fofana · Chambly Thelle FC
8'🟨Ronny Rodelin · Guingamp
14'⚽Frantzdy Pierrot · Guingamp
16'🟨Florian David · Chambly Thelle FC
20'⚽Yannick Gomis · Guingamp
51'⚽Bryan Pelé · Guingamp
69'🟨Frantzdy Pierrot · Guingamp
76'🟨Medhy Guezoui · Chambly Thelle FC
85'🟨Pierrick Valdivia · Guingamp
87'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
14Shots16
4On target7
5Corners4
15Fouls14
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricChambly Thelle FCGuingamp
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.25
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.20
box share (last 5)0.490.59
cards avg (last 5)2.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Pierre Brisson
Bryan Pelé · Guingamp
90'⚽Yannick Gomis · Guingamp
coach days—123.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.000.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.402.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.402.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.932.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.09
dominance (last 5)0.350.60
elo1450.871496.80
elo momentum (last 5)-53.25-6.25
eye test v1-1.650.11
eye trend v10.070.08
first sub minute (last 10)53.7048.40
form points (last 5)1.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.60
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.35
keeper form v10.700.72
league points13.0016.00
league rank16.0013.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win6.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.2076.40
possession avg (last 5)46.0047.00
rest days7.047.04
scorer concentration—0.19
season ppg1.081.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.804.80
shots for avg (last 5)6.2015.80
skill v1-0.65-0.26
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.404.40
sot for avg (last 3)1.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)1.404.40
squad age28.2527.19
state index-1.180.05
sterile dominance v10.43-0.87
threat rate (last 10)0.170.31
threat rate (last 3)0.120.35
threat rate (last 5)0.140.34
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.00