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Chateauroux 0–1 Paris FC

← Ligue 2 2019 · Fri, Oct 18, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chateauroux win37%2.63
Draw34%2.85
Paris FC win29%3.28

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chateauroux +056%1.75
Paris FC +044%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under67%1.45
Over33%2.87

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Ousmane Kanté · Paris FC
20'🟨Samuel Yohou · Paris FC
24'🟨Cheick Diarra · Chateauroux
28'🟨Ousmane Kanté · Paris FC
30'🟨Romain Grange · Chateauroux
38'🟨Mohammed Rabiu · Paris FC
48'🟨Julien López · Paris FC
71'🟨Remi Mulumba · Chateauroux
75'🟨Richard Steven Sila · Paris FC
90'🟨Thomas Garcia · Paris FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
16Shots10
5On target2
8Corners2
14Fouls13
3Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricChateaurouxParis FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.490.45
cards avg (last 5)3.202.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gaston Petit (Châteauroux)
coach days2208.00504.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.06
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.606.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.473.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.11
dominance (last 5)0.480.35
elo1421.021494.05
elo momentum (last 5)4.003.62
eye test v10.63-1.51
eye trend v10.600.13
first sub minute (last 10)52.7056.90
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.480.53
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.770.80
league points7.008.00
league rank19.0018.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4073.00
possession avg (last 5)45.8041.80
rest days14.0014.00
season ppg0.640.73
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.20-6.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.607.20
skill v1-0.44-0.96
sot against avg (last 5)5.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.302.30
sot for avg (last 3)6.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.801.80
squad age26.3028.15
state index-0.35-0.41
sterile dominance v1-0.71-0.06
threat rate (last 10)0.250.17
threat rate (last 3)0.340.17
threat rate (last 5)0.300.17
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.20