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Le Mans FC 1–0 Chambly Thelle FC

← Ligue 2 2019 Β· Fri, Oct 4, 06:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Thierry Bouille, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Mans FC win37%2.64
Draw32%3.02
Chambly Thelle FC win31%3.09

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Mans FC +054%1.79
Chambly Thelle FC +046%2.11

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.73
Over44%2.19

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Thibault Jacques · Chambly Thelle FC
41'🟨Guillaume Dequaire · Chambly Thelle FC
56'🟨Aboubakary Kanté · Le Mans FC
80'⚽Vincent Crehin · Le Mans FC
87'🟨Vincent Crehin · Le Mans FC

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots4
4On target1
4Corners2
13Fouls15
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricLe Mans FCChambly Thelle FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.05β€”
box share (last 5)0.590.57
cards avg (last 5)2.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueMMArena (Le Mans)
coach days3747.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.00β€”
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.07
corner diff avg (last 5)1.401.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.403.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.93β€”
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.15
dominance (last 5)0.500.49
elo1327.701476.08
elo momentum (last 5)-22.50-36.74
eye test v1-0.52-0.54
eye trend v10.040.21
first sub minute (last 10)61.2261.00
form points (last 5)3.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.74β€”
h2 goals (last 10)0.70β€”
ht lead rate (last 20)0.20β€”
keeper form v1β€”0.73
league points3.0012.00
league rank21.0014.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win3.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6080.80
possession avg (last 5)50.0049.60
rest days3.977.00
scorer concentration0.25β€”
season ppg0.331.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.8010.80
skill v1-0.140.37
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.672.89
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.20
squad age25.8228.83
state index-1.12-0.69
sterile dominance v1-0.020.34
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.260.24
threat rate (last 5)0.240.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.60β€”