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Niort 2–2 AJ Auxerre

← Ligue 2 2019 · Fri, Sep 27, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Mehdi Mokhtari, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AJ Auxerre win47%2.05
Draw29%3.48
Niort win24%4.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Niort +0.552%1.87
AJ Auxerre +0.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.69
Over43%2.24

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Ibrahim Sissoko · Niort
30'🟨Dylan Louiserre · Niort
75'⚽Brahim Konate · Niort
85'⚽Remy Dugimont · AJ Auxerre
90'⚽Quentin Bernard · AJ Auxerre

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots15
6On target4
4Corners4
15Fouls11
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNiortAJ Auxerre
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.430.42
cards avg (last 5)3.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade René Gaillard (Niort)
coach days269.0088.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.20
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.40-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.022.39
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.12
dominance (last 5)0.410.50
elo1444.461437.13
elo momentum (last 5)14.5427.47
eye test v1-0.640.29
eye trend v10.090.41
first sub minute (last 10)67.3063.10
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.27
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.800.72
league points12.0011.00
league rank9.0014.00
matches since blank1.006.00
matches since clean sheet2.007.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8082.20
possession avg (last 5)41.6052.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.430.36
season ppg1.331.22
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.000.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.0012.60
skill v1-0.990.71
sot against avg (last 5)4.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.80
squad age24.8227.49
state index-0.21-0.05
sterile dominance v1-0.800.44
threat rate (last 10)0.230.23
threat rate (last 3)0.280.24
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.00