← Ligue 2 2019 · Fri, Sep 20, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Romain Lissorgue, France
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Nancy win | 42% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
| Chambly Thelle FC win | 26% | 3.88 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Nancy −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Chambly Thelle FC −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 66% | 1.46 |
| Over | 34% | 2.83 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 0 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Marcel-Picot (Tomblaine) |