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Rodez 4–1 Le Mans FC

← Ligue 2 2019 · Fri, Sep 13, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Pierre Gaillouste, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez win47%2.07
Draw29%3.36
Le Mans FC win24%4.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Mans FC −0.554%1.83
Rodez −0.546%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.78
Over46%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Ugo Bonnet · Rodez
5'🟨Dorian Lévêque · Le Mans FC
23'⚽Pape Sane · Rodez
36'🟨Yann Boé-Kane · Le Mans FC
54'⚽Vincent Crehin · Le Mans FC
56'🟨Joris Chougrani · Rodez
62'🟨Dorian Lévêque · Le Mans FC
62'🟥Dorian Lévêque · Le Mans FC
75'⚽Ugo Bonnet · Rodez
77'⚽Valentin Henry · Rodez

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
13Shots8
6On target3
5Corners2
8Fouls12
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRodezLe Mans FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.34
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.05
box share (last 5)0.550.62
cards avg (last 5)2.601.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
coach days1535.003726.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.604.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.603.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.207.60
corners volatility (last 10)—4.01
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.13
dominance (last 5)0.480.51
elo1502.991360.44
elo momentum (last 5)-6.05-17.60
eye test v1-0.38-0.24
eye trend v10.23-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)46.8362.33
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)—0.92
h2 goals (last 10)—0.50
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.20
keeper form v10.720.61
league points9.003.00
league rank13.0019.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6076.60
possession avg (last 5)40.4057.60
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration0.380.20
season ppg1.500.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.400.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.0012.00
skill v1-1.090.47
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.83
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.80
squad age25.9926.25
state index-0.17-0.66
sterile dominance v1-0.970.72
threat rate (last 10)0.290.24
threat rate (last 3)0.320.19
threat rate (last 5)0.280.20
venue ppg (last 5)—0.60