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Le Havre AC 0–0 Paris FC

← Ligue 2 2019 · Fri, Sep 13, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Mehdi Mokhtari, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Havre AC win57%1.70
Draw28%3.47
Paris FC win16%6.17

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC −0.7550%1.95
Le Havre AC −0.7550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.54
Over38%2.56

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Mohammed Rabiu · Paris FC
45'🟨Mohammed Rabiu · Paris FC
45'🟥Mohammed Rabiu · Paris FC
53'🟨Pape Gueye · Le Havre AC
59'🟨Julien López · Paris FC
75'🟨Felipe Saad · Paris FC
85'🟨Pape Gueye · Le Havre AC
85'🟥Pape Gueye · Le Havre AC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots6
2On target1
7Corners4
18Fouls10
2Yellow cards4
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLe Havre ACParis FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.450.47
cards avg (last 5)1.603.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Océane (Le Havre)
coach days74.00469.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.220.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.802.20
corners against avg (last 5)8.203.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.913.45
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.18
dominance (last 5)0.490.51
elo1563.351490.43
elo momentum (last 5)73.65-61.76
eye test v10.15-0.69
eye trend v10.460.33
first sub minute (last 10)67.3063.20
form points (last 5)15.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.80-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.940.52
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.700.68
league points17.001.00
league rank1.0021.00
matches since blank8.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win0.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0078.80
possession avg (last 5)40.2052.80
rest days14.0011.04
scorer concentration0.62—
season ppg2.430.17
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.800.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.409.60
skill v1-0.960.38
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.802.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.602.80
squad age25.5328.75
state index0.91-0.98
sterile dominance v1-1.020.73
threat rate (last 10)0.240.17
threat rate (last 3)0.280.20
threat rate (last 5)0.290.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80