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Grenoble 2–2 Racing Club de Lens

← Ligue 2 2019 · Mon, Sep 2, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Romain Lissorgue, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win42%2.29
Draw30%3.20
Grenoble win28%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble +0.2550%1.94
Racing Club de Lens +0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.58
Over40%2.46

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Jonathan Tinhan · Grenoble
34'⚽ (pen)Tony Mauricio · Racing Club de Lens
55'🟨Yannick Cahuzac · Racing Club de Lens
59'🟨Cheik Traoré · Racing Club de Lens
70'🟨Moussa Djitté · Grenoble
89'⚽Yohan Brun · Grenoble
90'🟨Pierre Gibaud · Grenoble
90'⚽Simon Banza · Racing Club de Lens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
9Shots11
4On target4
2Corners7
20Fouls22
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGrenobleRacing Club de Lens
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.590.71
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Alpes (Grenoble)
1.80
coach days458.00489.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.206.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.013.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.12
dominance (last 5)0.470.47
elo1397.361509.51
elo momentum (last 5)-8.17-25.37
eye test v1-0.92-0.01
eye trend v10.08-0.37
first sub minute (last 10)59.5048.00
form points (last 5)3.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.371.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.30
keeper form v10.630.56
league points4.007.00
league rank17.0015.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.004.00
matches since win9.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6078.40
possession avg (last 5)52.4053.40
rest days10.039.24
scorer concentration0.400.40
season ppg0.671.17
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.8012.00
skill v10.330.38
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.40
squad age26.6227.94
state index-0.86-0.49
sterile dominance v10.810.38
threat rate (last 10)0.170.24
threat rate (last 3)0.190.21
threat rate (last 5)0.160.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40