← Ligue 2 2019 · Fri, Aug 2, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Aurelien Petit, France
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Orleans win | 39% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
| Chambly Thelle FC win | 30% | 3.41 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Chambly Thelle FC −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Orleans −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.59 |
| Over | 40% | 2.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade de la Source (Orléans) |