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Clermont 3–0 Chateauroux

← Ligue 2 2019 · Fri, Jul 26, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Mokhtari

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win58%1.66
Draw25%3.83
Chateauroux win17%5.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont −0.7552%1.88
Chateauroux −0.7548%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.66
Over42%2.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Alassane Ndiaye · Clermont
28'🟨Sekou Conde · Chateauroux
44'🟨Yannick M'Bone · Chateauroux
54'⚽Adrian Grbić · Clermont
83'⚽ (pen)Adrian Grbić · Clermont
86'🟨Yannick M'Bone · Chateauroux
86'🟥Yannick M'Bone · Chateauroux
88'🟨Florent Ogier · Clermont

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots11
7On target5
8Corners3
13Fouls16
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontChateauroux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.510.54
cards avg (last 5)1.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel Montpied (Clermont-Ferrand)
coach days2581.002124.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.18
corner diff avg (last 5)3.20-6.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.808.20
corners for avg (last 5)7.002.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.832.18
defensive leak (last 5)0.220.03
dominance (last 5)0.670.31
elo1493.671462.31
elo momentum (last 5)-36.5740.87
eye test v10.86-0.71
eye trend v10.530.47
first sub minute (last 10)54.6054.10
form points (last 5)2.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.670.81
matches since blank3.005.00
matches since clean sheet6.004.00
matches since win10.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.6075.60
possession avg (last 5)56.2047.00
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)9.00-11.60
shots for avg (last 5)18.208.60
skill v11.22-0.34
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.702.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.00
squad age26.2626.90
state index-0.740.28
sterile dominance v10.060.20
threat rate (last 10)0.280.18
threat rate (last 3)0.370.20
threat rate (last 5)0.330.19
venue ppg (last 5)0.402.00