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Guingamp 3–3 Grenoble

← Ligue 2 2019 · Fri, Jul 26, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp win50%1.93
Draw29%3.30
Grenoble win21%4.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp −0.550%1.93
Grenoble −0.550%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.57
Over39%2.48

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Jeremy Mellot · Guingamp
30'🟨Adrien Monfray · Grenoble
31'⚽Yeni N'Gbakoto · Guingamp
51'⚽Charles Pickel · Grenoble
58'⚽Moussa Djitté · Grenoble
69'🟨Florian Raspentino · Grenoble
70'⚽Bryan Pelé · Guingamp
72'⚽Moussa Djitté · Grenoble
76'🟨Didier N'Dong · Guingamp

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
22Shots5
8On target3
8Corners1
8Fouls17
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGuingampGrenoble
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.520.56
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Roudourou (Guingamp)
coach days25.00420.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.206.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.912.88
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.11
dominance (last 5)0.620.39
elo1518.521400.81
elo momentum (last 5)-10.42-0.34
eye test v10.55-0.25
eye trend v10.86-0.41
first sub minute (last 10)54.0061.30
form points (last 5)3.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
keeper form v10.640.63
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win9.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4080.00
possession avg (last 5)53.6050.40
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)3.60-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)16.209.40
skill v10.710.35
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.80
sot for avg (last 3)7.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.80
state index-0.30-0.52
sterile dominance v1-0.120.63
threat rate (last 10)0.280.20
threat rate (last 3)0.360.13
threat rate (last 5)0.310.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80