← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Jun 28, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 54% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.07 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 23% | 4.35 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel +0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Nurnberg +0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 1.47 |
| Under | 34% | 2.83 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Patrick Erras · Nurnberg |
| 53' | 🟨 | Asger Sørensen · Nurnberg |
| 60' | 🟨 | Tim Handwerker · Nurnberg |
| 67' | ⚽ | Lion Lauberbach · Holstein Kiel |
| 88' | 🟨 | Enrico Valentini · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christian Mathenia · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 301.00 | 27.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 3.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1469.76 | 1441.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.34 | -1.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| league points | 42.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.00 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.73 | 25.99 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |