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Bochum 2–2 Greuther Furth

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 Β· Sun, Jun 21, 01:30 PM UTC Β· ref: M. Petersen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win43%2.23
Greuther Furth win29%3.29
Draw27%3.58

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum βˆ’0.2550%1.93
Greuther Furth βˆ’0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.70
Under43%2.25

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Vasilis Lampropoulos · Bochum
7'⚽Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth
37'🟨Sebastian Ernst · Greuther Furth
42'⚽Robert Tesche · Bochum
52'⚽Jordi Osei-Tutu · Bochum
56'🟨Paul Jaeckel · Greuther Furth
79'⚽Sebastian Ernst · Greuther Furth

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
8Shots10
7On target2
3Corners5
13Fouls18
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumGreuther Furth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.16
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.17
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.510.48
cards avg (last 5)3.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
coach days294.00506.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)7.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.332.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.08
dominance (last 5)0.520.51
elo1520.451468.23
elo momentum (last 5)44.853.21
eye test v10.03-0.96
eye trend v10.19-0.36
first sub minute (last 10)61.0051.90
form points (last 5)13.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.340.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.79β€”
league points45.0043.00
league rank7.009.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6080.00
possession avg (last 5)54.0057.00
rest days3.884.88
scorer concentration0.240.21
season ppg1.411.34
shot diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.2011.80
skill v10.550.79
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.331.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.402.00
squad age26.7426.78
state index0.67-0.13
sterile dominance v10.540.80
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.240.20
threat rate (last 5)0.220.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40