← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Thu, Jun 18, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Ittrich
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 55% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.27 |
| Dresden win | 22% | 4.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden −0.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.54 |
| Under | 37% | 2.62 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Finn Porath · Holstein Kiel |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jannik Müller · Dresden |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jannik Müller · Dresden |
| 39' | 🟥 | Jannik Müller · Dresden |
| 45' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Iyoha · Holstein Kiel |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ondřej Petrák · Dresden |
| 80' | ⚽ | Lion Lauberbach · Holstein Kiel |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sascha Horvath · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 291.00 | 200.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1480.29 | 1382.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.37 | -11.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | -0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 49.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| league points | 39.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 5.23 | 2.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.77 | 26.60 |
| state index | -0.56 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |