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VfB Stuttgart 5–1 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Wed, Jun 17, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Alt

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
VfB Stuttgart win56%1.73
Draw24%4.00
SV Sandhausen win20%4.90

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen −0.7550%1.95
VfB Stuttgart −0.7550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.71
Under43%2.23

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Nicolás González · VfB Stuttgart
20'⚽Gonzalo Castro · VfB Stuttgart
28'⚽ (og)Tim Kister · VfB Stuttgart
31'⚽ (pen)Nicolás González · VfB Stuttgart
34'🟨Nicolás González · VfB Stuttgart
39'🟨Gonzalo Castro · VfB Stuttgart
52'🟨Nathaniel Phillips · VfB Stuttgart
55'🟨Philipp Klement · VfB Stuttgart
68'⚽Enrique Peña Zauner · SV Sandhausen
90'🟨Dennis Diekmeier · SV Sandhausen
90'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

4Half-time score0
18Shots16
11On target5
9Corners4
14Fouls15
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVfB StuttgartSV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.690.66
cards avg (last 5)3.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMercedes-Benz-Arena
Hamadi Al Ghaddioui · VfB Stuttgart
2.20
coach days199.00625.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.601.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.202.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.03
dominance (last 5)0.590.59
elo1570.341469.94
elo momentum (last 5)-12.6440.47
eye test v10.88-0.03
eye trend v1-0.460.05
first sub minute (last 10)62.1060.90
form points (last 5)7.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.42
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.680.59
league points52.0040.00
league rank3.0011.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.8063.20
possession avg (last 5)60.4043.40
rest days3.215.00
scorer concentration0.160.27
season ppg1.681.29
shot diff avg (last 5)4.604.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.2015.60
skill v11.48-1.75
sot against avg (last 5)3.201.60
sot for avg (last 10)6.204.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.004.40
squad age26.3728.02
state index0.180.42
sterile dominance v10.94-1.73
threat rate (last 10)0.260.32
threat rate (last 3)0.220.36
threat rate (last 5)0.240.35
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40