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Karlsruhe 2–1 VfB Stuttgart

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Jun 14, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Gerach

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
VfB Stuttgart win56%1.74
Draw24%4.00
Karlsruhe win19%5.04

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
VfB Stuttgart +0.7551%1.94
Karlsruhe +0.7549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.85
Under47%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe
34'🟨Manuel Stiefler · Karlsruhe
35'⚽ (pen)Nicolás González · VfB Stuttgart
54'🟨Daniel Gordon · Karlsruhe
60'🟨Silas · VfB Stuttgart
70'🟨Hamadi Al Ghaddioui · VfB Stuttgart
72'⚽Lukas Fröde · Karlsruhe
90'🟨Wataru Endo · VfB Stuttgart

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots14
3On target6
8Corners7
14Fouls18
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheVfB Stuttgart
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.570.68
cards avg (last 5)2.202.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueWildparkstadion
coach days134.00196.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.201.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.003.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.182.13
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.12
dominance (last 5)0.510.61
elo1383.551584.18
elo momentum (last 5)18.66-12.59
eye test v1-0.451.06
eye trend v1-0.08-0.34
first sub minute (last 10)54.6058.80
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.08
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.730.72
league points30.0052.00
league rank17.003.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4086.40
possession avg (last 5)51.0061.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.370.16
season ppg1.001.73
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.406.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.4016.60
skill v1-0.161.70
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.506.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.406.20
squad age28.8626.24
state index-0.330.14
sterile dominance v10.130.86
threat rate (last 10)0.240.27
threat rate (last 3)0.180.24
threat rate (last 5)0.220.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20