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Heidenheim 4–1 Regensburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Jun 13, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: F. Brych

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Heidenheim win49%1.96
Draw26%3.69
Regensburg win24%4.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Regensburg −0.551%1.93
Heidenheim −0.549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.75
Under45%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Robert Leipertz · Heidenheim
41'🟨Timo Beermann · Heidenheim
52'🟨Max Besuschkow · Regensburg
65'⚽Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim
74'🟨Sebastian Nachreiner · Regensburg
75'⚽Aaron Seydel · Regensburg
81'⚽Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim
83'🟨Maurice Multhaup · Heidenheim
86'⚽Stefan Schimmer · Heidenheim
88'🟨David Otto · Heidenheim

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots14
7On target4
4Corners4
12Fouls10
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHeidenheimRegensburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.650.61
cards avg (last 5)1.403.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVoith-Arena
coach days4669.001078.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.22
corner diff avg (last 5)1.401.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.062.13
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.08
dominance (last 5)0.520.34
elo1534.511467.39
elo momentum (last 5)-11.6317.06
eye test v10.20-1.20
eye trend v1-0.360.20
first sub minute (last 10)57.6056.40
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.640.68
league points48.0039.00
league rank4.0011.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0066.40
possession avg (last 5)53.6041.00
rest days5.987.00
scorer concentration0.340.18
season ppg1.601.30
shot diff avg (last 5)1.00-8.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.408.40
skill v10.56-1.60
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.002.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.40
squad age27.0026.79
state index0.09-0.25
sterile dominance v10.37-0.51
threat rate (last 10)0.300.23
threat rate (last 3)0.240.23
threat rate (last 5)0.240.19
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.40